Payton Wilson, LB, NC State (Senior)
Rayane M
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Strengths :
- Explosive and ultra fast
- Excellent pursuit
- Nice size
- Very good zone coverage
- Decent play recognition
Weaknesses :
- Plays too high
- Tackling technique needs work
- Tendency to initiate contact with the shoulder
- Age
- Struggles to disengage from blocks
- Blitz technique needs refining
- Extensive injury history
LB Payton Wilson
— Rayane M (@RayaneScout) January 22, 2024
Hard for me not to like the player when I see how much he plays with heart. Endowed with incredible athleticism and capable of relentlessly pursuing the ball carrier, unfortunately his age and injury concerns will hurt his draft stock.
4th Round Talent🔎 pic.twitter.com/Iq3BOsHh95
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One of my favorite prospects in the entire draft, regardless of position, Payton Wilson could indeed turn out to be one of the sleepers of this draft if he's taken at the right spot and, most importantly, if he manages to stay on the field.
To start with, how can we not talk about what makes Payton Wilson, Payton Wilson? Namely, his incredible explosiveness and speed. Payton is fast, really fast. In addition to his truly impressive athletic abilities, Payton, thanks to his tall stature, covers a lot of ground with each stride. Moreover, he is capable of maintaining his speed over quite long distances when in pursuit, as you can see in the video from the tweet just above. His speed and explosiveness are real assets and could alone earn him draft positions. Wilson unsurprisingly excelled at the NFL Combine, which took place a few days ago, scoring an impressive 9.81 out of 10 for his R.A.S (Relative Athletic Score).
If his speed is so intriguing, it's for good reason. You're starting to get to know me, and being fast just for the sake of it doesn't interest me in the slightest. However, being fast to use that speed to serve football, now that's what interests me! And it's safe to say that Payton knows how to use his speed to shine on the field, thanks to his excellent pursuit skills. Once again, I refer you to the tweet above to see Wilson in pursuit (it's simple, look for the player making the tackle, that's Payton, and then see where he starts from at the beginning of the play). Wilson never hesitates to give 100% when chasing the ball carrier, and it's not uncommon to see him sometimes save entire drives thanks to this ability. I really love it.
Another area where his speed allows him to shine, and not just a little, is in his ability to cover passing plays, especially when he's tasked with covering a zone. He's really comfortable in this regard. While he's good at covering man-to-man, it's really in zone coverage situations that Payton has impressed me the most. He positions himself quickly and effectively in his zones, he slides quickly when threatened, and he's able to do so while keeping his shoulders facing the play and the QB, which allows him to react well if the play demands it. He also has the reflex to regularly glance at the players who are his keys to reading the play, all while continuing to drop into his zone. It's really, really impressive.
In addition to his impressive athletic abilities, another point that could interest NFL scouts about Wilson is his imposing physical stature for the position. Payton is tall and quite heavy, which should not only aid him once he arrives in the pros but also simply pique the interest of scouts who have increasingly prioritized size and athleticism in recent years.
In terms of reading the game, which is crucial for the linebacker position at any level, Payton's is indeed very decent. I couldn't quite label it as good because it's not consistently excellent, but you can infer from its inclusion in his strengths that there's a reason for it. While it's not extraordinary in the sense that he sometimes takes a bit too long to read the play and then activate his legs, on the flip side, he rarely makes mistakes in his reading. You'll rarely see Payton going in the opposite direction of where the ball is or charging into the line when it's a passing play. No, Payton's reading ability is quite decent, and I believe with the level of coaching in the NFL, particularly the amount of time he'll spend in film sessions, there's a real possibility of improvement in his processing speed at the NFL level.
But if Payton Wilson really has some good things to highlight, we shouldn't overlook the negatives either. Unfortunately, as much as I like the player, there are some real question marks surrounding Wilson.
First and foremost, largely due to his tall stature for the position, Payton unfortunately tends to play too high. Particularly in blitz situations, it's not uncommon to see him arrive quite high, making him much more susceptible to being blocked at the line by an offensive lineman. His advantage in these situations is that he's still quite heavy, so if he gains momentum, he's not so easy to stop.
That being said, Payton sometimes struggles significantly when he needs to Stuff His responsibility gap. He suffers greatly because of this. He often bears the brunt of the initial impact because he's too high, and I fear that if we transpose this to the NFL level, Payton might really struggle, to put it politely, especially if he remains aligned in the box. This tendency to play too high remains clearly his biggest flaw in his game, and I emphasize in his game because for me, Wilson's biggest flaw unfortunately does not lie within his gameplay, as we'll see at the end of the scouting.
That being said, Payton sometimes struggles significantly when he needs to Stuff His responsibility gap. He suffers greatly because of this. He often bears the brunt of the initial impact because he's too high, and I fear that if we transpose this to the NFL level, Payton might really struggle, to put it politely, especially if he remains aligned in the box. This tendency to play too high remains clearly his biggest flaw in his game, and I emphasize in his game because for me, Wilson's biggest flaw unfortunately does not lie within his gameplay, as we'll see at the end of the scouting.
To continue on the same point, which translates to another aspect of his game, due to his height and the fact that he often arrives high when tackling, it's not uncommon to see him completely miss his tackles. Also, beware of Wilson's tendency to miss tackles by trying to arrive too forcefully and too high. His match against Notre Dame this season is a good example of what he needs to work on in terms of tackling technique.
At the risk of shocking some on this point, especially considering his statistics or the highlights he has produced in these situations, but I don't think Payton ranks among the best blitzers in the draft class. Certainly, he starts strong, explosively and descends quickly in blitz situations, but most of the time, that's it. Indeed, most of his sacks come from plays where he passes almost untouched, primarily thanks to the work of the defensive line in front of him, which is often overlooked when evaluating a linebacker's blitzing ability. When Payton encounters resistance in a blitz situation, you can immediately see a lack of rush techniques, a lack of Bend when he finds himself rushing from the edge, as we've seen above, he often arrives too high, and in situations where he has to rush the opposing QB, he often ends up with his body weight forward, quite unbalanced, making it easier for the blocker to simply redirect him and accompany him to keep the pocket intact.
That being said, Payton can still be very intriguing in certain Stunts situations or Delay blitzs thanks once again to his good speed, but he will still need to force himself to be lower to be disguised from the quarterback's eyes and especially from NFL offensive linemen, whose game reading is much superior to that of the majority of college-level offensive linemen.
That being said, Payton can still be very intriguing in certain Stunts situations or Delay blitzs thanks once again to his good speed, but he will still need to force himself to be lower to be disguised from the quarterback's eyes and especially from NFL offensive linemen, whose game reading is much superior to that of the majority of college-level offensive linemen.
Wilson also has a strong tendency to come into contact with opposing blockers using his shoulder when he recognizes a running situation. Personally, I'm never a fan of this, even though I've done it myself as a player (and probably would again), because while it does allow for more powerful impact with the blocker, it exposes the risk of taking oneself out of the play by compromising one side of the body. Indeed, if the blocker manages to lock his block, the defender who came into contact using his shoulder ends up clearly in a position of weakness, stuck to the offensive lineman with no possibility of separating afterwards, which can create a big gap for the ball carrier to exploit. This gap can turn into a highway if the blocker is good and activates his legs to take you to another defender in traffic.
To continue on Payton's abilities to defend the run, especially when he's in the box, he really struggles to shed a block. When the blocker locks his block on Wilson, it's usually game over for him, and he's taken out of the play. Payton lacks power, upper body strength, and especially wingspan to develop a punch powerful and long enough to keep blockers at bay. He relies on staying mobile and evading blockers, but unfortunately, this isn't viable at the NFL level. Hence, the importance of staying low at the moment of contact to be more powerful and better withstand the initial impacts.
Finally, the two points that are likely to impact Payton's value as the draft approaches, and it's unfortunate when considering that they have nothing to do with his value as a player, are indeed his age and injury history.
Indeed, it is worth remembering every year that the NFL remains a business, and many franchises are managed more like corporations than sports teams. From this perspective, a player like Wilson carries risks. The first is his age; Payton will be 24 years old during his rookie season. For a player who still has work to do before he can claim a starting position, not to mention the time it takes for many players at this position to integrate into NFL defensive systems and adjust to the fast pace of play, being 24 is clearly a weakness in the eyes of many general managers, scouts, and coaches. In a league that places much more emphasis on potential than on current level of play, his age could indeed cause him to lose value in the eyes of some front offices.
Indeed, his injury history is a significant concern that will require a leap of faith even from the most ardent of general managers. Payton has undergone no less than 10 surgical procedures during his college career. Not one, not two, not even three, but TEN!!! surgeries in 5 college seasons! That's enormous! Throughout his career, his two knees, elbow, and shoulder have been affected. Considering the injury rate in the NFL, it's reasonable to be apprehensive. While I found Payton to be quite solid in addressing this issue during press conferences, it's important to remember that it's part of PR. It would be normal, albeit somewhat unfair, to see his draft stock affected by this.
Ah Payton Wilson, a complicated case to pose on the board. On one hand, athleticism and a capacity to cover position him as a real interesting profile to develop, on the other hand, an age, a capacity to be decisive in situations of Run stop truly limited despite a few flashes to secure the edge when he aligns outside the box, and we find ourselves with a complicated case.
Do I give more value to his athletic abilities, which cannot be learned, and his ability to defend the pass, which is so sought after in the modern NFL, in which case he would be worth an early third-round pick? Or do I give more value to the fact that he still lacks too much in certain qualities I look for in my linebackers, and in this case, let's say Payton misses a lot of tackles despite impressive statistics and still struggles too much in the box when engaging blockers after five seasons in college football, and then I would consider drafting him around the fifth round? And what about his age because a 24-year-old linebacker to develop is more reminiscent of a late-round gamble, and that's not even mentioning his Injury Prone statuts.
Do I give more value to his athletic abilities, which cannot be learned, and his ability to defend the pass, which is so sought after in the modern NFL, in which case he would be worth an early third-round pick? Or do I give more value to the fact that he still lacks too much in certain qualities I look for in my linebackers, and in this case, let's say Payton misses a lot of tackles despite impressive statistics and still struggles too much in the box when engaging blockers after five seasons in college football, and then I would consider drafting him around the fifth round? And what about his age because a 24-year-old linebacker to develop is more reminiscent of a late-round gamble, and that's not even mentioning his Injury Prone statuts.
We end up with Wilson ultimately having an undefined playing profile, with too many shortcomings to be a true Mike linebacker, not good enough in situations of Pass rush so he can be used as an OLB in all systems. So ultimately, is Payton not the perfect player for the Will linebacker role in a 4-3? The only problem is, few teams still play with 3 true LBs. So what value to give to a player who may not be on the field all the time for the start of his career? It's complicated to say. Personally, I think late 4th round wouldn't be unreasonable, especially since with his athletic abilities, which are truly impressive, he could quickly find a place on special teams. Behind that, there is potentially room for development to slot him as the 2nd ILB / 3rd LB in Nickel packages, in a 3-3-5, 4-2-5, or potentially even Dime packages in a 3-2-6 thanks to his coverage abilities, but Wilson will need to work tirelessly on his ability to defend the run and especially play in the box.
Due to all these points, especially his age and injury history, I believe drafting him before the 3rd day would be a very high risk, one that I personally am not willing to take. That being said, I am still a big fan of the player, and from the 3rd day onwards, he is definitely a player who interests me.
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