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Patrick Paul, OT, Houston (Junior)

Picture of Rayane M

Rayane M

Back for the 2024 NFL Draft edition, The Trick Play team is once again offering to immerse you in the heart of the event through the scouting reports of Rayane and Valentin. Who will become the next gem of the pro world and who, on the contrary, risks a spectacular flop?
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Strengths :

  • Nice size
  • Good power
  • Good wingspan
  • Nice flashes in Pass pro 
  • Adequate ability to anchor

 

Weaknesses :

  • Sometimes very sluggish
  • Footwork
  • Plays too high
  • Often off-balance
  • Really poor hand placement
  • Needs to revise blocking angles when moving to the second level
 

TTProfil

 
Ah, the Paul family and me, a love story that began in 2022 after Washington drafted Patrick's older brother, OG Chris Paul from Tulsa! Although I only learned about this a few seasons later, it was indeed during the 2022-2023 season that I first laid eyes on Patrick following a Houston game where I saw this OT with a big size that immediately caught my interest.
 
Indeed, one aspect that could interest any franchise is his size. Patrick Paul has the size of an NFL Tackle, standing at 6'7" and weighing 333lbs, which is the first thing you notice about him. Moreover, Patrick is not just about size; he possesses the power that comes with his frame. When he manages to lock a player in a block, generally, the player doesn't escape.
In addition to his height and weight, which are clearly interesting measurements, Patrick has tentacular arms that he uses well to break the distance with his opponents. His wingspan, measured during the pre-draft process, appears to be 2m18. Essentially, for our NBA enthusiast readers, Patrick Paul has a wingspan similar to guys like Larry Nance Jr., Draymond Green, Jonathan Isaac, or Nico Batum.

Due to the attributes mentioned above, Patrick is sometimes able to display nice flashes in Pass pro where he manages to keep up with players much more explosive than him, thanks again to his size, which allows him to cover a lot of ground with his Kick and Slide.
 
Patrick also has a good ability to anchor himself to the ground when he is well-balanced, and that's precisely the issue. He has a real problem with balance, which will be discussed in the weaknesses section. It's truly unfortunate because, with his size, his anchoring ability should be elite, not just good when he's balanced.
 
 
 
Regarding footwork, Paul will have a lot of work to do on activating his legs during run blocks. Too often, he takes small steps and narrows his stance, which makes it impossible to move the defender post-contact. He will absolutely need to improve on this once he reaches the pros.
 
Patrick also has the flaw common to all tall OL or DL players; he generally plays too high. I'm well aware of how difficult it is for a player of his size to stay low, but it's imperative today to be dominant in the trenches, especially given the talent at the EDGE position. He must make a concerted effort to play lower. It's worth noting that he has made efforts in this area this season compared to last season, trying much harder to play low, though it's still not sufficient.

We briefly touched on his balance issues in the strengths section, but let's delve into more detail now. Patrick too often finds himself off-balance, whether in run blocking or pass protection. Sometimes leaning too far forward, sometimes backward, he seems to constantly struggle with maintaining his balance. When leaning forward, it's because he places too much weight ahead without being in control, leading to him being easily pulled forward by the slightest tug from a DL. Leaning backward is less frequent but still common, mostly due to his legs lagging behind his opponent, coupled with his Pad level playing too high, so when the defender places his hands well and develops a good push from a low position, Patrick loses his balance and thus loses the rep. This balance issue is quite concerning and will need to be addressed at the professional level if Paul hopes to become a starter.
 
His hand placement will also need work because, currently, it's really not good, and this is largely due to his immense arms causing his hands to be too far outside. It's unfortunate to see that his coach has never been able to develop a blocking grip with the hands seeking the inside and elbows tight. The worst part is that, because his arms are so long, it's highly visible; his hands often end up on the DL's back. Moreover, due to his height and the fact that he plays too high, even when he manages to get a hand inside, it's often at the level of the defender's throat or facemask, which again can lead to a flag. 
 
Finally, Paul still struggles significantly with his ascensions to the second level. It's not uncommon to see him move up and end up being completely useless because he finds no player to block and doesn't know what to do. However, this issue could quickly be addressed with a good coach and a heavy dose of video analysis.
 
 

In conclusion, while Patrick Paul might attract some attention on paper due to a physique that's already prepared for the professional world, or statistics highlighting his number of snaps without allowing sacks, he's a prospect I've always had doubts about, and rest assured, I've had my eye on him for quite some time.
Yes, I can understand why his size might be appealing (after all, it's one of the reasons why I myself started taking an interest in him in the first place), but just watching a Houston game this season will reveal the number of areas Patrick needs to work on to become an interesting rotational option. While he can intermittently show nice moments and good power, he is still far from the level he could reach with a physique like his.
Another point that I find very concerning about Patrick is his failure to dominate the competition. It's always okay, but you never think, "Oh wow!" when watching him play, and this becomes particularly alarming when correlated with the "very" weak opposition he has faced throughout his college career. Simply put, since becoming a starter, the toughest team he has faced is Texas this season, and it can't be said that Texas had a top-tier CFB EDGE this season. And this has been the case throughout his entire college career; Patrick has never faced an EDGE player close to NFL level, and despite this, he has never dominated the competition.

In short, I'm really not excited about Patrick Paul based on what he has shown or his projection in the NFL. Adding his advanced age (he will be 24 in his rookie season) to the mix, his stock is at an all-time low for me, and I wouldn't consider picking him before the 6th round as a developmental player for my rotation. The only thing preventing him from dropping to the 7th round for me is the effort I've seen him put in the work on some of his weaknesses, but unfortunately, it's far from enough. However, I do acknowledge the effort. So, a 6th round pick for me.

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